Not so fast my receiver lovin' friends!

We've looked at the first round busts in the past (roughly 40% every year - not just in the FPT, but every publication imaginable...) and what have we found - remarkable consistency in the numbers: Number of busts. PPR studs get it done. It's not about the yards!

Well, as we look a bit closer at this, despite our best efforts to prognosticate, the only thing reliably scientific is that we are inevitably wrong.

2007 Receiving Leaders (top 10):

Picked

(20th) Houshmandzadeh - 112

(133rd) Welker - 112 (kept - DNice)

(10th) Wayne - 104
(Free Agent) Mason - 103 (potential keep - Ninja)

(174th) Marshall - 102 (kept - UCB)

(18th) Fitz - 100

(106th) Gonzo - 99

(211th) Colston - 98 (kept - UCB)

(55th) Moss - 98

(Free Agent) Witten -96 (kept - DNice)

Order of the first 10 receivers taken: Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, Marvin Harrison, TO, Holt, Boldin, Fitz, Roy Williams, TJH, Andre Johnson...where are the rest? They're too busy running short out routes and getting the occasional tuddy - that's where they are. Oh, and have we mentioned the almighty 8 catch kicker? Yeah...

2006 Receiving Leaders (top 10):

(27th) Andre Johnson - 103

(Free Agent) Furrey - 98

(11th) Harrison - 95

(3rd) Holt - 93

(23rd) Driver - 92

(91st) Coles - 91

(24th) Houshmandzadeh - 90

(10th) Jackson - 90

(122nd) Winslow - 89

(36th) Bush - 88

Order of the first 10 receivers taken: Holt, Smith,Ocho, Marvin, Chambers, Boldin, Wayne, Randy Moss, TO, DJax...Once again, where did the others come from? PPR machines who hover around 1,000 yards tops...

2005 Receiving Leaders (top 10):

(46th) Fitz - 103

(4th) Smith - 103

(47th) Boldin - 102

(23rd) Holt - 102

(24th) Ocho - 97

(34th) Gates - 89
(69th) Driver - 86

(103rd) Mason - 86

(95th) Rod Smith - 85

(132nd) Santana Moss - 84

The order of the first 10 receivers taken: Randy Moss, TO, Marvin, Holt, Ocho, Andre Johnson, Javon, Steve Smith, Horn, Hines...2005 was a bit of a mixed bag as you can see with respect to more big yardage guys surfacing here.

Ultimately, times have clearly changed and you have to wonder if defenses have gotten better at taking away the big play receivers or have the offenses gotten more conservative overtime...maybe it's a bit of both, but one thing is clear: 20-30% of the wide receivers taken in their positional top-10 meet the expectations. The flip side - 70-80% underperform...something to keep in mind going forward boys!