FPT Document - 2008

Welcome Aboard …
the 2008
Frederick Pain Train

OVERVIEW:

Welcome Back Boys!!! It’s that time of year again…Training Camps have officially opened and the magazines are flying off the shelf at your local bookstore/grocery store. Obviously we have a few changes this year but thankfully nothing major. First, we are happy to welcome Fred Kramer back into the FPT fold despite his tendency to “cry” a bit more than the rest of us. Second, we changed our keeper possibilities to ensure owners have some flexibility in addition to being able to take advantage of positioning themselves nicely throughout year. Amazingly we still have some owners who have limited keeper options on BOTH sides of the ball.

Here’s the KEEPER RECAP for 2008 ….
Owners may keep the following:
2 Offensive players
2 Defensive Keepers

There was much discussion regarding a 5th keeper but a combination of two things led to it’s removal from the table in 2008: lack of preparation on most your parts and we couldn’t find a fair price to pay for a 3rd offensive keeper.

With that said, the 5th keeper option (offensive or defensive) will be in play in 2009 so heed our advice and plan accordingly. Clearly, the commishes are prepared for doing this now (coincidently or a function of a compulsive understanding of our rules?) but the point is this – we’ll let it slide this year but understand that if you don’t prepare going forward, the “pain” will be felt for years to come!

First Stop: Draft Order

1. Freddy
2. Drury
3. Vogel
4. Ricky B
5. Senuta
6. Conley
7. Dan
8. Patrick
9. Mark
10. Brain


Starting Line-ups need to be entered through the website by 5 minutes before the start of each player's game! Positions are determined through NFL.com.

Starting Line-up requirements…
1 Quarterback
2 Running Backs
3 Wide Receivers
1 Tight End
1 Flex Position (RB, WR, or TE)
1 Kicker
2 Defensive Linemen
2 Linebackers
2 Defensive Backs
1 Flex Position (DL, LB, or DB)
_______________________________
Total = 16 players Total Roster Max = 30 active players + 2 IR spots = 32 Total



Second Stop: Keeper Status

See the draft results at the link to the right (D&D should have Cotchery at 21 and Brees at 22)


Keeper Breakdown:

1. Determine which round the player was drafted in 2007. Free Agent pick-ups count as the 24th round.

2. Depending on the round drafted -
Round Drafted Round given up in 2007 draft

24-20 2 round bump
19-15 3 round bump
14-10 4 round bump
9-6 5 round bump
3. Decide by August 28th and submit to the league who (if any) will be your keeper(s) for 2008. This allows each NFL team to complete 3 preseason games before finalizing your choice.

4. If you decide to trade, the player(s) 2007 draft status transfers to the new owner.


Third Stop: Trades

Keeper candidates can be traded.
Draft picks can be traded. This includes swapping positions temporarily(round by round) or permanently(entire draft position).

Fourth Stop: Scoring System

Scoring for Offensive Categories
CmpPct - Completion Percentage
0+ CmpPcts = 0 points Plus a 5 point bonus @ 70+ CmpPct
FG - Field Goals
3 pointsPlus 2 points for a FG of 50+ Yds
FL - Fumble Lost, Including ST plays
-2 points
IKRTD - Individual Kick Return TD
6 points
IPRTD - Individual Punt Return TD
6 points
MFG - Missed Field Goal
-1 pointPlus 1 point for a MFG of 35+ Yds
MXP - Missed Extra Point
-1 point
Pa2P - Passing Two-point Conversion
2 points
PaCmp - Passing Completion
0+ PaCmps = 1 point for every 5 PaCmpsPlus a 5 point bonus @ 25+ PaCmp
PaInt - Passing Interception
-1 point
PaTD - Passing TD
4 points
PaYd - Passing Yards
0+ PaYds = 1 point for every 20 PaYdsPlus a 5 point bonus @ 300+ PaYd
Re2P - Receiving Two-point Conversion
2 points
ReTD - Receiving TD
6 points
ReYd - Receiving Yards
0+ ReYds = .5 points for every 5 ReYdsPlus a 5 point bonus @ 100+ ReYdPlus a 5 point bonus @ 150+ ReYdPlus a 5 point bonus @ 200+ ReYd
Recpt - Reception
0+ Recpts = 1 point for every 1 RecptPlus a 5 point bonus @ 8+ Recpt
Ru2P - Rushing Two-point Conversion
2 points
RuTD - Rushing TD
6 points
RuYd - Rushing Yards
0+ RuYds = .5 points for every 5 RuYdsPlus a 5 point bonus @ 100+ RuYdPlus a 5 point bonus @ 150+ RuYdPlus a 5 point bonus @ 200+ RuYd
XP - Extra Points
1 point

Scoring for Defensive Categories

TK/ATK - Tackle (ID/DT/DST)
The change in points for tackles is an attempt to adequately reward a player for consistently making plays on the defensive side of the ball regardless of the venue he is playing in on a weekly basis due to differences in scoring procedures! If you’re in on a play, you’re in on a play.
0+ TKs/ATKs = 1.0 point for every 1 TK/ATKPlus a 5 point bonus @ 11+ TK

BXP - Blocked Extra Points (ID/ST/DST)
3 points
DFR - Defensive/ST Fumble Recovered (ID/DT/DST)
3 points
DTD - Total Defensive and Special Teams TD
6 points
FF - Forced Fumble
3 points
Int - Interceptions
4 points

PDef - Pass Defensed (ID only)
We feel it is important to not over value certain plays and minimize the value of a player demonstrating an ability to consistently make plays. We felt PD’s were over valued and in no way should a player receive the same number of points as a player who has been involved in 3-6 tackles.
2 points
SACK - Sack
4 points

STY - Safety
2 points


Head-to-Head, Points Based System.
Ties go to the team with more points from Reserves.
Scoring based on total stats each period.

Fifth Stop: Schedule

Our league is comprised of two divisions:

NorthSide Division

Ricky B.
Drury
Vogel
Dan
Mark

SouthSide Division

Fred
Brain
Senuta
Patrick
Conley


Regular season play occurs during weeks 1-12.

o Each team plays a divisional foe twice.
o Each team plays the every team from the opposite division once. Considering we have one less week this year as a result of including the 7/8 teams in the playoffs, week 11 will be a doubleheader week for everyone. This takes all the byes out of play, too. Not to mention, a final playoff seeding push could make this week PIVOTAL!

Sixth Stop: Playoffs

Playoffs occur during weeks 13-16.

We will have a Super Bowl bracket and a Toilet Bowl bracket.

Super Bowl Bracket…


Week 13 Week 14 Week 15 Week 16

1-4 (BYE) 1-2 (BYE) 1 vs. lowest seed Winners week 15 (champ)

5 vs. 8 3 vs. lowest 2 vs. next lowest Losers week 15 (3rd)

6 vs. 7 4 vs. next lowest



Toilet Bowl Bracket…

Week 13 Week 14 Week 15

9-10 (BYE) 9 vs. lowest Winners week14 (Toilet Bowl Champ)

10 vs. next lowest



Seventh Stop: Finances

o League dues are $65 for the season - paid draft night!
o Every drop is $1.00
o Every add is $1.00
o Every received player in a trade is $1.00.
o Waiver wire - We will continue the "Auction Format" for WW additions just like last year. Unless there is an objection, Tuesday at 9:00pm is when the Waivers will be assigned. At the close of WW, remaining players are deemed “Free Agents” and may be picked-up at 9:30 EST/8:30 ChiTown Time Tuesday night. You may bid up to $10 but will only be charged 50 cents more than the competing, high bidder. If you bid $10 – you better be prepared to pay the $10, right D&D? It’s the chance that only you decide to take… Sometimes you’ll be lucky and get him cheap. Other times you’ll get stuck paying $10 bucks for a perennial back-up like Betts. Or sometimes you’ll be Brain and pick-up a guy not in the league but had studly high school stats!

Pay-outs will be paid at the end of the fantasy season and will be structured like this…as always, these payouts represent the floor and will be adjusted as D&D opens the pocketbook for Chris Baker.

Pay-out Total Monies (season)

Weekly high score - $10 17 weeks - $170
Regular Season Division Winners - $100 Two Division Winners - $200
Total Points Champion (Weeks 1-17) - $100 One Points Champion - $100
Toilet Bowl Champion - $30 One Toilet Bowl Champion - $30
Super Bowl Champion - $130 One Super Bowl Champion - $ 130
Runner up - $100 One Runner-up - $100
3rd place - $75 One 3rd place - $75
(determined by week 16 match-up)
4th place - $50 One 4th place - $50
(determined by week 16 match-up)

Overall finances…

Total income (based on dues only) = $650

Website cost = $130 (since we pay half because of the CBS issues last year, the surplus will roll into awards)

Leaves us with $620 to start

Other, yet-to-be-determined income sources…

Drops/Adds - $1.00 for each action
Traded players received - $1.00 each
Waiver Wire - winning bidder pays as little as $1.00 up to $10.00

Eighth Stop: Injured Reserve


Any player placed on injured reserve (IR) must not play for the week's game. Since there is a plethora of conflicting information out there regarding injury status, you have to decide the risk of keeping/placing someone on the IR. IF a player is on the IR and plays that week, that player is placed on the Waiver Wire, no questions asked (Freddy, remember Corey Dillon?). We do not want the IR to be used in unfair (hoarding) ways and ultimately this is the most fair way of deciding its use.


Final Stop: Inevitable Issues

We will have something come up during the course of the season that causes a bit of confusion. As thorough as we've been, there are always gaps/holes. Any questions or concerns regarding our league should be made known as soon as you see a potential problem. The commissioners will make every effort to rectify the situation while incorporating everyone's input; however, in the event we (Senuta and Vogel) deem it necessary to decide, we will.


Good luck to everyone this year and remember that trash talk is part of the game…no hard feelings.

Now, let the race for 3rd place begin!

Senuta, co-commish
Vogel, co-commish

This is the "Hear me out" mock

What a difference a week makes! Has anyone else seen the magazine racks at Barnes and Noble? Two words: Adrian Peterson. Can Freddy really pass up on the huge upside when LT is coming off a banged up leg and running behind a new fullback? Looks like Drury has a decision to make...


1.01 Purple Jesus


The only downside besides his injury history is you have to grab Chester Taylor much earlier than you would probably like. Let's face it, with a cush run schedule like the Vikes this season, both these guys have value in our system so go ahead and grab Peterson, but know some of us like the the idea of throwing Talyor out there as a number 2 with a monster upside in the event your boy goes down hard!


1.02 Tom Brady


The more I look at this pick the more I like about it to be honest...there is virtually no reason why he doesn't explode again this year despite coming back to Earth alittle - remember, 40 tuddies is back down to Earth - but not back down to the rest of the pack. Too much edge with him under center - book him!


1.03 Reggie Wayne


Perhaps against my better judgement, but I'll take my chances rolling with Marshall, Colston, and Wayne (304 catches in 2007) rather than grab what appears to be a "bonafide stud back"...Crazy? Probably. A move to win? Yup!


1.04 Steven Jackson


No brainer actually - unless you reach for Moss here! Bold move with keepers like Campbell and Kevin Walters but you're not known for what the rest of us call, "conventional"


1.05 LT


Is this scenario possible? Well, you know better than most that curve balls happen - sometimes rightly but often wrongly. The question remains, though...Do you stick with a WR in the 1st or grab the most consistently, high-performing RB over the last 7 years? You're a believer in RBs leading to Championships despite WRs taking control in 2007...afterall, isn't LT like a WR in a PPR?


1.06 Westbrook


Yeah, yeah, yeah..."I'm lovin' Portis this year!" Well, when's the last time Portis caught 50+? Never. When's the last time BWB caught LESS THAN 50? 2003! Last I checked - we're in a PPR!


1.07 Barber


Addai is tempting but a bit too safe for the consummate gambler. You grab the double digit tuddies with lots of upside knowing that Felix Jones will split out on 3rd downs thus opening up the interior for MBIII. Solid pick!


1.08 Moss


You scoff but the likelihood of Randy falling this far can happen if someone goes TB and RW in the top 5. It's called the ripple effect my friend...the question is - are you a leader or a follower?


1.09 Addai


Dominic Rhodes doesn't scare you in the 9 spot.


1.10 LJ


Diapers or not - this crybaby can flatout tote the rock in the redzone! You're shocked he's here but laugh at those who cringe at Brodie Croyle...


2.01 Braylon


With TO still on the board? Why not? I'll tell you why...because you drafted Chris Chambers 14th a couple years ago!


2.02 TO


Come to Papa...


2.03 Fitz


Andre Johnson is tough to pass up here but that tricky knee isn't going away...take your chance on Fitzgerald despite the ominous presence of Boldin.


2.04 Portis


Portis in the 2nd???


2.05 Andre Johnson


He's ranked too high across the board...you hate to do it, but not even the great D&D is that stubborn!


2.06 Steven Smith


You're not buying Smith's numbers post Delhomme last season - you're expecting Smith circa September 07! It helps knowing anyone else you're looking at here, except Peyton, will be there in the 3rd...


2.07 Ocho Mucho Attitudo


In Spanish, this doesn't mean a damn thing - in FPT - you love a guy who thinks he's the greatest!


2.08 McGahee


He's going to catch 50+ under Cam Cameron this season - book it! He was close under Billick for crying out loud...


2.09 TJH


High targets. Healthy WR. Productive offense. Won't be there after Fred...


2.10 Manning


You know the value of stud QBs but also recognize that rarely does a #1 QB one season hold the top spot the next...gimme 2008s #1 at number 20!


3.01 Boldin


You gotta get a wideout who actually has a QB throwing the ball...unlike Mr. Bowe in KC!


3.02 Lynch


Either you're a fan of Tim Russert (who wasn't?) or you actually think the Bills hype is legit...I can tell you this though, Lynch doesn't catch nearly as many balls as you think (trust me - there's a reason I didn't take him earlier!).


3.03 Bush


Did I really just pass up Holt and Burress??? Maybe draft night I won't...


3.04 Burress


You need someone to balance out all the unproductive weeks Ocho'll give ya'


3.05 Holt


Old? Yup. High target on a healthier team in 2008? You bet...and I LOVE TO BET!


3.06 Jamal Lewis


Lots of choices here since you're forced to look RB cause the wideouts aren't worth it...Maroney, Ronnie, Forte, McFadden & co. You go with the vet and hope Anderson can continue to keep them honest!


3.07 Roy Williams


No contest here - probably the only legit WR available in mid-3rd...


3.08 Santonio


Lookin' to reach, are ya? You'll take a QB/TE on the otherside so grabbing an upside WR in a rising offense is too tempting to pass up.


3.09 Jonathan Stewart


Interesting...with Maroney, Forte, Rudi, Edge, Ronnie still out there. Richmond is a bit closer to Charlottte so maybe you know something we don't. Weren't we talking at Collusea (spelling?) about you being our inside guy for the Panthers?


3.10 Gates


Take your pick but does it pay to go conventional this year at TE...afterall, look at Winslow, Witten, Clark, and Gonzo in 2007!


4.01 Forte


F*ck Cedric.


4.02 Edge


No competition in Zona means oodles of opportunity for Mr. Goldteeth...if 2007 is any indication, there is ZERO upside with Edge, though. Hope Stewart works out for you!


That's all for now...stay tuned!

last day of school - FIRST DAY OF SUMMER!

1.01 Freddy - LT

Is it just me, or has San Diego fallen off the radar after an underachieving year in 2007? And if I'm not mistaken, Gates underperformed (particularly if you look at his draft position every year!), Chambers continued his atrocious reception %, and Vincent Jackson looks the part but hasn't played it...smells like LT will have as much of the pie as he wants with Turner gone!

1.02 SchoolGirls - Steven Jackson

The buzz is Jackson is a bit banged up in the groin region which is certainly cause for concern - but hesitation, not a chance. Way too much upside in a fantasy world with few dynamite fulltime backs in a weaker division. Plus, he can and will catch the heck out of the ball...

1.03 UCB - Thomas Brady

Never drafted a quality player in the 1st round so looks like Brady will fall victim to the UCB curse in 2008! But, how can you pass up on 40+ and a 300 ypg average?

1.04 Flava - AP

Welcome home, AP! Better grab Chester a bit earlier than you think...think how you snagged LJ a few years back to rain on the Juiceman's handcuff! Monster TD numbers but the consistent production will likely be lacking for a top #4 pick.

1.05 Juice - Reggie Wayne

Curve ball? Only if you haven't paid attention to who is already on his roster and the history of Jason Robert Senuta... Consider yourself warned.

1.06 D&D - Portis

The love affair of 2008, right Conley? You have been drooling over the positive pub he's getting on the East Coast for weeks now... You might be right, but I have 15.9 million reasons to question him here.

1.07 PE - Addai

Safe pick. Right spot. Defending champ decision.

1.08 Ninja - Moss

Infatuation with all things Patriot is an understatement. You hate Brady being off the board yet relish the opportunity to passive aggressively get UCB back - well, I'll take the younger guy who doesn't get hit anyday. Sorry.

1.09 DNice - Westbrook

Classic DNice. Like a vulture on the Savannah you swoop in to capture the latest prey... Kinda funny since Westbrook is always wounded anyway!

1.10 Brain - Barber

Like the pick but LOVE how the Cowboys are going to carry your roster for week one. Plus, there is nothing like the trade value they'll command in early September - like a Honda - Cowboys never lose value! Smart decision!

2.01 Brain - TO

Sexy pick but does he ever get kickers? Not as many as you'ld think being the 3rd WR off the board...

2.02 Dnice - Manning

Come to Papa, Peyton...Take me back to the Promise Land as all stud QBs do.

2.03 Ninja - Braylon

Same pick. Different year. You always draft someone based on hype so grabbing Braylon ahead of Fitz is dare I say, TOO EARLY! If you don't mind me asking, do MJD and Turner really make you comfortable?

2.04 PE - Fitzgerald

Look at what Big Dan found in the 2nd - a studly, consistent, young WR who has been paid yet working on his next monster contract. Thanks for making the strong - stronger, Ninja!

2.05 D&D - Andre Johnson

Somewhat negative press now but in August I'm sure everyone will forget his permanent spot on the sidelines...or, maybe the fact that his knee is still getting scoped 9 months later is a sign. A sign that there are healthier WRs out there for a 2nd round pick!

2.06 Juice - Houshmandzadeh

TJ is to 85 as Reggie is to Harrison. That's right - the #2 performs better than the "#1"

2.07 Flava - #85

Is it the gold teeth? The gold HOF jacket? Or is he just Fool's Gold...book him!

2.08 UCB - Burress

Plax in the 2nd? Actually, the 3rd if you consider Colston and Marshall are already off the board and on my roster! I can't wait to see the WR pool for the rest of you...

2.09 SchoolGirls - Steve Smith

I hope Matt Moore can get it done...

2.10 Freddy - Boldin

This feels about right - after the true studs and before the occassional studs. Kinda like his contract, right Anquan?

3.01 Freddy - Holt

Big game and bigger desire to get out of St. Louis...potential motivation or source of frustration?

3.02 SchoolGirls - Roy Williams

Wrong Lion, Drury...

3.03 UCB - Marshawn "The HitMan" Lynch

Hits holes like they're innocent bystanders in the wee hours of the morning...not to mention he takes it to the house!

3.04 Flava - McGahee

You've always had a soft spot for Willis. Which back-up you gonna draft first, now?

3.05 Juice - Larry Johnson

Justified slip? Well, running behind a line like that can't be good for a cry baby... There's a lot to be said for upside with a high floor but LJ's been livin' in the basement!

3.06 D&D - Ronnie Brown

Back for his second tour only this time, he's coming off serious injury and contending with Ricky. Smart pick - only if you pass! Your name says it all though...

3.07 PE - Hines Ward

You sense this passing offense is going from good to great in 2008. But one has to wonder, do you grab the guy everyone thinks is the #1 or make a move for the guy who actually is the #1? You're too safe to gamble in the 3rd...Puss!

3.08 Ninja - Maroney

Every bone in your body suggests this isn't the right pick but these bones are also telling you that your backfield is made up of flex guys right now...time to reach!

3.09 DNice - Coles

Welcome home! Since you left, I got your brother from another mother - meet Mr. Welker!

3.10 Brain - Bush

You can't believe THE REGGIE BUSH is here! He's a fine pick if your running back doesn't need to run...

4.01 Brain - Matt Forte

Pounding the KoolAid in ChiTown. Let's face it - Benson was never going to be successful after the ugly hold-out. Unfortunately, the line is that much older and the QB continues to be in flux... Is this a good situation for a rookie? Well, at least the other Adrian Peterson is there to take some heat (and valuable carries and targets!)

4.02 DNice - Fast Willie Parker

Who doesn't love a guaranteed 1,000 yard back...anyone who knows who Mendanhall is.

4.03 Ninja - Santonio Holmes

You had him two years ago and have felt empty ever since... well, he's back and is actually worthy of a roster spot this time , unlike a past reach - Lamont Jordan!

4.04 PE - Jamal Lewis

Nothing like a fulltime back behind an outstanding line. Let's hope the wheels don't fall off in 2008 but getting him in the 4th is a low risk/high reward play...

4.05 D&D - Calvin Johnson

Likely not here in August but you need a break looking at this mock!

4.06 Juice - Winslow

First TE off the board in the 4th?! Surprising fall? Nope. Before Gates? Brilliant! Nice job, Commish...

4.07 Flava - Antonio Gates

He's gone at your next pick and you know Cooley is only in your mind because you're in Skin's Country. Check yourself before you wreck yourself, Richard!

4.08 UCB - Jonathan Stewart

There's a reason Freddy didn't keep DeAngelo...allow me to introduce him.

4.09 SchoolGirls - McFadden

Reaching for a big name rookie, are ya...how often do rookie running backs produce? Not often. However, when they are competing with the incumbent starter (Fargas) and an afterthought 2nd year beast (Bush) this situation doesn't fit the bill. This night is shaping up to be earlier than mine in Philly!

4.10 Freddy - Thomas Jones

Savvy play but is it smart? Faneca is good and will make this line much better...but this is a committee if I've ever seen one.

5.01 Freddy - Chambers

I suppose this due to a lack of options at this point...

5.02 SchoolGirls - Carson Palmer

In a desperate effort to regain your footing, you grab the most hyped QB of 2007...newsflash, it's 2008, Michael. Shoulda waited another 5 rounds!

5.03 UCB - LenDale The Hut

I have a fondness for big eaters - that's why I've known Ricky since Kindergarten. Well, do they get any bigger than LenDale? Butterbean. But he's not available...

5.04 Flava - Santana Moss

Sneaky pick but I wonder if the rest of us might actually be missing something with this Moss...it wouldn't surprise me if Santana isn't here come draft night.

5.05 Juice - Marvin Harrison

My how the mighty have fallen...thanks for making the pick nobody wanted to make! I hate to tell you but you missed your shot at a sliding WR last year..Marvin is more like a plummet!

5.06 D&D - Rudi Johnson

Rudi in the first one year - the fifth the next. Two words: not good. Shoulda waited and grabbed Kenny Watson much later... At least he catches the ball!

5.07 PE - Vincent Jackson

Big target. Bigger letdown. Enjoy!

5.08 Ninja - Big Ben

Reach Alert! If you make a move for a QB grab someone who actually gets kickers...

5.09 DNice - Greg Jennings

Another vet to the old DNice roster - but this pick only makes sense if one legendary, injury free vet comes out of retirement...

5.10 Brain - Donald Driver

At least his name conjures up Double D's...and that's not tuddies, Brain!

Speaking of historic...

Has anybody given a look to see if early round drafting strategies has had any impact on the eventual champion? Probably not... Never fear my friends - time is on my side these days!

2005 Season:

DNice rolled to his first championship by drafting RB/WR/WR/RB/RB...

Memorable not for his 3 RBs bookending 2 WRs, it is more for the vintage Moss - TO loop picks by the always under-the-radar (only in his own mind...) guy who grabbed Rackers hours later after watching him clear the uprights on a kick-off! But even a stud Kicker isn't why DNice is engraved on the hardware - it's the guy under center...Brady (7th rounder).

2006 Season:

DNice rolled (again) to his second championship by drafting RB/WR/RB/WR/QB...

RB/WR heavy as usual but who's that in the 5th - Brady.

2007 Season:

Performance Enhancers rolled through the ENTIRE season by drafting RB/RB/QB/WR/RB...

Not only did Dan grab Manning in the mid-3rd, but he effectively ended all of our seasons by grabbing Randy Moss in the 6th! Why is that important? Because Randy only came out his 3 year hibernation because of Tom Brady (stud).

***Didn't Brady put Ninja Mafia on the map in 2007?

In the end it's pretty obvious - Brady is justified as early as anyone wants. He's young, proven, and is surrounded by guys who catch the ball, protect the pocket, and go for the juggular all 16 weeks! Nothing has really change in 2008 except the chip became a boulder after the Super Bowl debacle and the Patriot passing schedule is cush...

However, not only was Brady tied to Big Dan's run - he grabbed steady, efficient, kicker-friendly Peyton to guide his team.

The ONLY way you can take this historic information is that drafting a top QB in a "known" friendly situation is the first point on the map to immortality... Fred, you're on the clock!

Mental Note #1: LT has NEVER hoisted the FPT hardware.

Mental Note #2: No champ has ever drafted a TE in the first 5 rounds (and no, Keith Bulluck and Adrian Wilson didn't get it done either, right Juice?).

A Historic Day DESERVES a Historic Mock!!!

1.01 - Fred ..... L.T.

Does anyone really think LT isn't going #1??? Whether Fred keeps the pick or not LT is going #1 b/c he is the only guy guaranteed to finish in the Top 5.....AGAIN!!!

1.02 - Drury ...... S-Jax

Brady is tempting as is All-Day but when push comes to shove...Drury wants a full time back who's in a contract year - Oh yeah, did I mention he plays in the NFC West??? Nice decision Drury....nice decision!

1.03 - Vogel ..... Addai

With the former Beaver off the board you are simply beside yourself and do the only thing a man of you prowess does ... go reliable. Only question is ... Is Addai more reliable than Brady? You won't take the bait .... way to stay true my friend!

1.04 - Flava ...... All-Day

Seriously....di you really think it'd be anybody else????

1.05 - Senuta ...... Brady

No way I can pass on a guy that gives me consistent points week in and week out....also, I think he has a chip on his shoulder....that my friends is a SCARY thought!!!

1.06 - D&D ..... Marion the Barbarion

Just b/c Conley wants to say this throughout the season b/c it sounds cool. The pick may also have something to do with the fact he's smart enough to know which '07 Cowboy back is going to have a monster year as the bonafide #1 back!!!

1.07 - PE ..... Westbrook

Dan is a man who believes things happen for a reason and feels he can't go wrong either way here....Moss or Westbrook have a championship with him in '07 and he wants that type of leadership and understanding of expectations back....screw the injury concerns...with a WR and TE kept he'll get his back now!

1.08 - Ninja ..... Manning

Feeling confident about Turner and MJD, Skertich can't fight off the urge to grab a Manning. The thing he's learned in his two years in the league is a dominant QB can score enough points to win you weeks....isn't that right, Patrick??? Manning may be in for another run at the record and Skertich wants a QB who is consistent!!!

1.09 - DNice ..... Portis

Brady would have been a "No-Brainer" here with Welker and Selvin being kept" but even still Mark Understands Brain could go RB/RB ... no way Marky Mark doesn't grab the back he wants first! Can't be forced to take and under=performing LJ again - can you? You'll get your WR in just a second!

1.10 - Brain ..... Moss

Well, Brain isn't called Brain for nothing, he knows Roddy-Roddy isn't a #1 Wideout and Moss is the #1 of all #1's. Nice pick Brain....I'll call you later!!!!

ROUND 2

2.01 - Brain ..... LJ

Brain loves Willis McGahee but can't pass on a name like LJ who figures to run behind a much improved line. Hope they can pass protect too b/c with the QB options in KC right now....Brain may be taking snaps by mid-October!

2.02 - DNice ..... TO

Mark loves Mark some Mark and can't ignore ther love affair he has with TO. Eerily similar to that girl you just can't seem to simply say hello to without asking her if she'd like to come back to your place at the end of the evening.......Welcome Home T.O. - Welcome Home!!

2.03 - Ninja ..... Wayne

Not sure he should have taken Manning he can't possibly take his new #1.....can he????... Thing is, he also knows deep down in places he doesn't talk about at parties he can't feel 100% confident with his backs. Lynch and McGahee were the last of the elite RB's .... unless you count Reggie Bush ... we know where Skertich stands with Bush. He passes and sticks with the INDY connection!

2.04 - PE ..... Fitz

Knowing Lee Evans isn't the most consistent of WR's in the league Dan has to grab a guy who can do just that...thinks about Braylon b/c of his Wolverine ties but when push comes to shove he'll pick the guy with the same Bye Week as Westbrook......Won't He????

2.05 - D&D ..... Edwards

Conley loves Coles but knows it's a little too early to get the family back together...he'll grab Braylon and soon realize this pick is doomed for the very reason he didn't look to trade for Anderson........hope you follow me here young Conley!

2.06 - Senuta ...... Smith

In all seriousness, I can't dance with AJ for a 3rd year and now way I'm touching Cincy until I see how it plays out. Steve Smith will produce and that's good enough for me...love a QB who force feeds a favorite wideout!

2.07 - Flava ..... Andre J.

Quite an upgrade over Jacoby Jones, eh Ricky B??? The guy may be the most talented WR in the NFL and hopefully he shows you that b/c god knows I have only caught a quick peak!

2.08 - Vogel ..... Burress

For the same reason Vog stays clear of the "bungled" situation and grabs a performer. Sure McGahee is tempting as are Bush and Lynch but 1 of the three will be there in the 3rd so he'll take his pick of the remaining wideouts!

2.09 - Drury ..... Housh

Drury loves the "Gateway" but not enough to justify both S-Jax and Holt so he'll go with a high target WR who is the more consistent of the 2 in cincy.

2.10 - Freddy ...... Holt

Either way he's going 1 and 1 here with a WR and a RB. Holt is safer than Boldin or CJ and I think even Fred is smart enough to stay clear of el Presidente....eh????

ROUND 3

3.01 - Fred ..... Lynch

If I remember correctly Fred is actually a pretty savvy draft guy who can find value....doesn't a guy like Lynch fit the bill. He is the main guy who is due to break out....at least that's what I am hearing!

3.02 - Drury .... McGahee

Can't pass on a guy who is the BWB for the new regime in Baltimore...Vogel is wishing you would but only Reggie can be justified here so take your pick but I like my guess....YOU????

3.03 - Vog ..... Boldin

Simply because you are a boldin guy....always have been! Also I'm not sure you'll dance with Bush since you have Colston.....Bush+Colston do not equal Brees!!!

3.04 - Flava ..... Bush

You mean I can have Peterson and Reggie Bush??? Where do I sign? Well Ricky B. - Sign up right here!!

3.05 - Juice ..... Jennings

He shouldn't make it back and I like him a lot so I grab him over Ocho --- at this point!

3.06 - D&D .... Rudi

The guy is still the #1 back in a good offense and Conly needs a back.

3.07 - PE .... Jamal

Why not add another guy with FPT championship experience! Although Ronnie and jacobs are tempting I think Lewis is a guy who can go for 100 and 2 any week!

3.08 - Ninja ..... Graham

Skertich needs another back to feel good about the backfield situation. The WR's are a muddled mix and he can grab someone after the loop. Still too early for Palmer...even though Manning is still stinging!!!

3.09 - DNice ..... Calvin

In a shocker DNice goes with the so-called #2 receiver in Detroit....we'll see though. I have a sneaky feeling a healthy CJ means much bigger production in the new offense! Mark can grab his other RB after Brain takes his wide-out and running back.

3.10 - Brain ..... Jacobs

Giddy, Brain takes the man-child and declares he has the best backfield in the league plus Tony Romo and Randy Moss.

ROUNDS 4 and 5 should be coming.......i'll try!!!!

The Last Mock of May 2008...let's do FIVE!

Don't fret my weak-minded comrades - just because May is over doesn't mean I'm starting my Home Run Derby analysis for 2009...I'll leave that to D&D - afterall, doesn't he prove that blind squirrels do find nuts every so often?


1.01 Freddy - LT


Frugal Fred can't go higher ceiling/lower floor with All Day here despite champions being made by taking picks that are more risky in the beginning. A lot of pressure since you may never have a chance to draft Peterson in the next five years unless you draw the 1 spot again...


1.02 Drury - Brady


You're scared of the possibility that AP might go IR before October...Steven Jackson fits this slot and your liking BUT...You saw how Brady can carry a weak team any season so you grab 'em early and check-out for the rest of the night because you can't lose with this guy, right?


1.03 UCB - Peterson


I don't like being one-upped in any draft but Brady being the first surprise 2 picks in makes a potential Moss play less sexy to me...I'll take Peterson and his high risk/high reward play and roll with him towards 1,400+/20/lot's of 100 yd kickers.


1.04 Flava - Jackson


How can you not grab the guy who you never expected to be here? Plus, he's the one guy you've secretly coveted the past couple of years...we know.


1.05 Juice - Moss


Clearly soft tissue history doesn't scare you considering your fondess for running the FPT Hospital...next thing you know, you'll be petitioning to increase the number of IR slots! You got bad vibes about BWB - Addai's likely share hurts his kicker opportunities - and you're startin' with Gore and Grant. Enough said.


1.06 D&D - Barber


Hear me out - if you think Julius Jones is going to be studly in 2008...how can you not LOVE the guy who forced him out of Dallas and cashed in? Uh huh.


1.07 PE - Addai


Westbrook is tempting but your magazine will clearly speculate how Lorenzo Booker is going to get some work on pass-catching downs to lighten BWB's role and hopefully free up a bed in the "ward" which means 6 catches=6 pts. instead of 8 catches=13 pts. Plus, you're not buying Dominic Rhodes.


1.08 Ninja - Manning


Pissed about Brady but expecting DNice to pull the trigger in the 12 spot - you grab the most likely QB to continue the tradition of knocking out the previous year's leader...


1.09 DNice - Wayne


Well throw out the QB scenario - time to grab the safest WR available. Plus, you like your options after Brain...


1.10 Brain - Westbrook


Is it just me, or does Brain fall for the fallen every year? Well, consider this the last time Westbrook goes in the 1st, boys...

First Round Recap:

Barber will rise as the regular season gets closer so he's safer than most come September. Brady and Manning in the 1st is unlike past drafts but little changed in NE and the Colts should have Harrison in "decoy capacity" early as they open a new stadium so things are looking rock solid for both in 2008. Once again - Westbrook doesn't get the love despite the PPR...

2.01 Brain - TO


With Romo under center you gotta love the Popcorn Man lining up each week in 2008. Hell - at this rate, you might as well grab the rest of the skill players from the NFC East!


2.02 DNice - Portis


Who would have thought that multiple options would fall past the turn? Everybody has a thing for Portis this year but lucky for you, you're pickin' early in round 2.


2.03 Ninja - Fitz


Braylon or Fitz? That's the question, my friend. I suppose the perpetual risk of K2 going down creates a bit of a coverage dilemma in Cleveland...safe pick with great upside!


2.04 PE - Braylon


Go Big Blue! Although LJ looks VERY TEMPTING...


2.05 D&D - TJH


Boldin feels good but TJH knows how to perform every week...Ocho will play so TJH will continue to get the catch and/or yardage kicker 3 times a month.


2.06 Juice - Burress


Plays hurt and does it well. Plus, you have a sneaky suspicion you'll have options in the 3rd...


2.07 Flava - Lynch


You see your season slipping away and it's only 7:15 PM! But grabbing two, potential stud backs is the best place you can be considering the lack of receiver options emerging. Good pick.


2.08 UCB - Bush


This guy is a catch machine in a dynamic offense - plus, he gives me a guaranteed victory everytime I play D&D with 50% of his completions! Not to mention the sheer number of catches means KICKERS! Thanks Drew...


2.09 Drury - Andre Johnson


His knee scope during mini-camps doesn't scare you - but it scares the shit out of everyone else!


2.10 Fred - Holt


LT, Holt...who's next to join the wrong side of the mountain? Lucky for us, we don't have to wait long!

Second Round Recap:

Wideouts are going fast and all that's left is a kiddie pool! You can debate the order in which they're taken but in the end these will be the picks. Additionally, the token RBs unjustifiably fall, thus, presenting exceptional value (and temptation).

3.01 Fred - Boldin

Small contract = Small performance?

3.02 Drury - LJ

Wow! Who knew that LJ would fall and there isn't a pass catcher left this early...great value pick if the slot value is low!


3.03 UCB - McGahee


Didn't think he would be here but from the looks of the WR pool left - anyone from there is a reach! No need to do that with Colston and Marshall in stable...


3.04 Flava - Roy Williams


Desperate times call for desperate measures...when did they teach you about retreat in the Corp?


3.05 Juice - Jamal Lewis


Patience pays and surprisingly you grab Jamal over Ronnie...head scratcher, perhaps? Not in some minds...


3.06 D&D - Ronnie


Crap shoot at best but you gotta get the upside guy here...this is a true test of your TE fortitude!


3.07 PE - Jacobs


From one NFC East back to another, you grab the thundering man-child who played third fiddle to Caddy and Ronnie back in Tigerland. Hopefully, he has learned from his collegiate days and won't run and hide from Bradshaw and the rest of the GMen backfield...


3.08 Ninja - Ocho Stinko


He'll be back but will he be welcomed? I have a sneaky suspicion he'll be doing sit-ups outside his house come Halloween...


3.09 DNice - Fast Willie


Shouldn't fall like this with 1,300+ and the likelihood that he'll eclipse his abyssmal TD total from last season despite Mendanhall and Moore to share some time...


3.10 Brain - Gates


The Brain loves Big Names and it doesn't get much bigger in the TE World than Antonio. Book 'em!

Third Round Recap:

Hodge podge of talent...is this where it becomes more needs based than value? For some - yes. Others? Not a chance...Where do you fall?

4.01 Brain - Maroney

Maroney's playoff performance last year seemed to put him solidly on Belichick's radar; however, the mastermind loves Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk so Maroney's fall to the 4th is unexpected but totally justified...could be a good pick - certain weeks!


4.02 DNice - Palmer


Ocho will likely be back but the preseason will inevitably be rocky so I don't see Palmer going any higher than this anyway...the problem is, he's likely 15 picks too soon here but it's the only spot DNice can grab a reliable QB with upside and a horrific defense.


4.03 Ninja - Gonzo


Could grab an RB here but you like you pick of TEs and trust a quality RB will be there in 5/6...good luck!


4.04 PE - Ward


Could go a few directions here but Ward is in a good passing offense that has gained weapons in the offseason...go with the seasoned vet and enjoy the consistency!


4.05 D&D - K2


Like Plax cause he performs when banged up but how much longer can he...? The upside to this pick is that your not tempted by Heap later!


4.06 Juice - Steve Smith


You laugh but taking Smith any higher is banking too much on Jake's shoulder and not understanding how good Uncle Hackett really is...just wait!


4.07 Flava - Santana


Drinkin' the Kool Aide, Ricky B! It's always gotten you in trouble with the ladies and now in fantasy too...


4.08 UCB - Jonathan Stewart


Remember his name.


4.09 Drury - Driver


How can you pass up on Double Ds - EVER? Better talk to Ninja about this first...


4.10 Fred - Santonio Holmes


Rarely hurt and his floor is pretty high so you gotta grab him here because he's not making it back!

Fourth Round Recap:

Looking back at it, this might be the most off mocked round yet in the end...But half the league has QBs and we have some clear mixed feelings about TEs this season. Throw in the fact that LBs are no longer considered this high and we have a "tier fest" where guys are grabbing whoever is left!

5.01 Fred - Rudi Johnson

My how the mighty have fallen...all the press in 2007 was how he slimmed down and looked quick. Well, all the press in 2008 has been the extra weight to strengthen him up...sounds like soul searching in Cincy.


5.02 Drury - Forte


Let's face it - the ChiTown boys will be giddy with all the Anti-Benson talk but does that automatically mean Forte is the guy? Maybe you'll know something the rest of us won't...


5.03 UCB - Cooley


A bit risky but something feels right about this quirky guy...too versatile to not be used but West Coast oddly doesn't produce high target TEs??? Could be the pick I look back on (think Ernie Sims in 2007) and say, "that's where I lost it..."

5.04 Flava - Calvin Johnson

Bad back and all...oh, did I mention Mike Martz is no longer there?

5.05 Juice - Thomas Jones

Value. How can he not succeed behind that line? Plus, TJ will have a monster week in September and will be sold for a Mint! Book it!

5.06 D&D - Coles

The connection lives on...and so does mediocrity! Congrats on the consistency, D&D!

5.07 PE - Greg Jennings

You don't need to go QB before the next owners so you wisely wait...Jennings would not last so now is the time before you're staring at Isaac Bruce!

5.08 Ninja - Fred Taylor

Makes sense since HE is the Jags starter...

5.09 DNice - LenDale the Hut

25+ carries in a ball control offense...classic DNice.

5.10 McFadden

If he's there...but he might not be. One thing is for sure, Fargas and Bush are...

Fifth Round Recap:

Running back heavy but understandable when you're looking at Chris Chambers and Javon Walker!

Overall - projected rosters:

Fred - LT, Holt, Boldin, Santonio, Rudi (keeping Graham and Bowe)

Drury - Brady, Andre Johnson, LJ, Driver, Forte (keeping Engram and Gostkowski)

UCB - Peterson, Bush, McGahee, Jonathan Stewart, Cooley (keeping Marshall and Colston)

Flava - Jackson, Lynch, Roy Williams, Santana Moss, Calvin Johnson (keeping Garrard and Campbell)

Juice - Moss, Burress, Jamal, Steve Smith, Thomas Jones (keeping Gore and Grant)

D&D - Barber, TJH, Ronnie, K2, Coles (keeping Cotchery and Brees)

PE - Addai, Braylon, Jacobs, Ward, Jennings (keeping Lee Evans and Dallas Clark)

Ninja - Manning, Fitz, Ocho Stinko, Gonzo, Fred Taylor (keeping MJD and The Burner)

DNice - Wayne, Portis, Fast Willie, Palmer, LenDale (keeping Witten and Welker)

Brain - Westbrook, TO, Gates, Maroney, McFadden (keeping Roddy White and Crayton)

Mock - May 21st

It's been awhile gentlemen, but now that projections are coming out the mindsets tend to change a bit. Hell, pretty soon Borders will be inundated with magazines and the public educators in the crowd will be freed from our chains and completely absorbed in PainTrain preparation...Nothing like 56 days of commitment!

1.01 - LT


Freddy has played too long to jump ship on a bonafide stud in an offense centered around one man. Yes, we've leaned towards AP in the past but how can you justify taking a second year, injury prone player with the #1 overall pick...isn't this the pick everybody wants but nobody relishes the sheer responsibility for?

1.02 - AP


Despite Steven Jackson seeming like the logical fit for Drury, he knows that Rams offensive line better than anyone so he'll pass and grab every Midwesterner's sexy pick - All Day. Historically speaking - how have #2s done in the history of the FPT?


2005 - Alexander (MONSTER YEAR) - Performance Enhancers
2006 - Alexander (injured) - SchoolGirls
2007 - Jackson (injured) - Brain

Hmmmm...

1.03 - Mr. Jackson

I'll take my chances on a bounce back from the only legit player left on an aging roster. Given my history - big let-down should be expected.

1.04 - Brady

You won't keep Garrard or Campbell because neither one gives you ANY chance for a QB kicker. But this guy does - book em!

1.05 - Reggie Wayne

Before you play conspiracy theories here, have a listen... Coming in with Frank Gore and Ryan Grant provides unique flexibility. Throw-in a probable run on WRs any moment now and what do you get - fewer stud WRs and sliding RBs in the 2nd... More importantly, ask yourself - Does J pride himself on following runs or starting them? Easy answer.

1.06 - Addai

Looky here - D&D just got the first unwarranted slide of the draft! A slide to the 6 spot isn't too significant but adding Dominic Rhodes in the offseason is...

1.07 - Westbrook

Big Dan goes back to the well for more - hopefully it's not dry!

1.08 - Moss

And you thought Brady might slip - Ha! And the first WR taken would be Randy - Rookie! No WR ever puts up top numbers in back-to-back years, son... But you lose sight of this while fighting back your man crush tears - damn you, Flava!

1.09 - Portis

Once again, Captain Value swoops in like Ricky B. taking sloppy seconds at XHale! You love Portis with his newly fat wallet and gimpy hip, don't you?

1.10 - LJ

Someone smells like Shaun Alexander...anybody else catch a whiff?

2.01 - TO

Despite your uncanny confidence in Roddy White, you know someone else has to take the field for your squad other than a worn out Hines Ward at the end of the 3rd. You love Romo. You love TO. And you love to trade away any talent you amass on draft night by September 15th! Nice pick - thanks!


2.02 - Manning

You think it. You know it. You must have it. Stud QB.

2.03 - Barber

New contract with more touches on top of back-to-back 10+ tuddies - Sounds like a great fit for a backfield with more promise than production.


2.04 - Braylon

Go Big Blue!

2.05 - Fitz

Julius Jones is a great value...in the 5th! But Fitz - high target, red-zone threat every week. Only an idiot could consider keeping Jones and passing on Fitz...do you fit the bill?

2.06 - Lynch

Look who slipped - Marshawn "3-down back" Lynch. Is it just me, or does this pick remind anyone of Westbrook sliding to 17th a couple years ago?

2.07 - Bush

Rick's never met a "Bush" he hasn't liked... anybody know where Reggie's from? Petersville, MD.

2.08 - McGahee

A justified slip with Rice coming in the picture or blind optimism since I suffer through their games every Sunday? In the end, probably right where he should go actually...

2.09 - Houshmizilly

Ocho Stinko's overhyped sidekick. "May 21st, 2008 - TJH will not get a single 8 catch kicker in 2008."

2.10 - Andre Johnson

Feels too much like your kinda pick to be honest... high-target, huge potential, coming off an awful injury in year two of a Matt Schaub offense.

3.01 - Steve Smith

You gave your fellow PainTrainers a scare a couple years ago with Mini Me's sick production but he now has a terminally wounded QB throwing him the ball with NOBODY behind him. Not to mention, the addition of Muhammad and Hackett will steal some of those poorly thrown balls...


3.02 - Holt

Long in tooth and short on time left in St. Louis...Better picks out there, my friend.

3.03 - Plaxico

This bastard burns me regardless - at least this way, I can simply bench his ass rather than suffer defeat at his hands! Safest pick on the board in my book!

3.04 - Ocho Cinco

Yeah - he may not show up to camp but if he plays, he will get drafted right about here because "sexy" is Rick's middle name...actually, that's pretty sick!

3.05 - Boldin

Boldin wants money. Boldin deserves money. Boldin's agent is Drew Rosenhaus. Why is this important? Because when his wideouts about money, they always get paid and always perform.

3.06 - Jamal

Time to dust off the vintage 2000 yard back jersey...hopefully he doesn't fade as quickly as the screenprinting!

3.07 - Maroney

Another head scratcher - nobody wants to take him but nobody wants to draft him either... In the end, can you really trust that Belichick will pound his opponent until the last whistle? Does a bear shit in the woods? Does Mike Shanahan play roulette with his running backs EVERY SINGLE YEAR?

3.08 - Roy Williams

OVER...RATED... Better off letting Brain grab him and taking Calvin Johnson later.

3.09 - Ronnie Brown

Bad knee - prick of a GM - pothead to split time with...high risk-high reward. It's what makes champions and losers. Too bad for you, you've about exhausted your "champions" opportunities.

3.10 - Gates

Somebody has to grab a TE in the 3rd - why not Brain!?

Wags Mock Wrap-Up

Since our co-commish has become adept at working the levers alittle too much at West Fred and not nearly enough on the FPT, I'm leaning towards impeachment hearings but I digress...

Rather than recap pick-by-pick (although I make a living teaching 20+ a day - what's a few more especially when you're giving remedial instruction?), I'm going to address by round with a bit of WR/RB blending...let's see how it goes.

Round One:

1. Peterson
2. LT
3. Westbrook
4. Brady
5. Barber
6. Jackson
7. Portis
8. Addai
9. TO
10. Randy Moss

It is becoming apparent that Brady will go early, and justifiably so... This is not Ricky B. smoke - he cannot keep Garrard and Campbell - let's face-it, when you keep players you expect them to be drafted if they were back in the mix, right? This is why Ricky will grab Brady in the 4 spot and will keep someone currently not on his roster. Book it!

As for the other notables, Barber rising up the boards may feel about as odd as Ninja grabbing Steven Jackson a few years back way too early, but considering Jackson never did it and Barber has (back-to-back mind you...), how can you not grab double-digit TDs from a starting back (who's been better known as a third-down guy = pass catcher) in a top-3 offense? Barber won't be there in the 2nd so if you like - grab him! On the flipside, is Joseph's fall legit or are we overreacting? It doesn't matter. You don't draft uncertainty in the 1st on draft night. Period.

Round Two:

11. LJ
12. Lynch
13. Edwards
14. Andre Johnson
15. McGahee
16. Wayne
17. Fitz
18. Keeper (Anderson)
19. Burress
20. Steve Smith

McGahee falling to the middle of the second is not only surprising, but won't happen. Harbaugh has seen the value of leaning on your guy in the backfield in Philly - Cam's resume is completely dependent on do everything backs (LT and Ronnie) - Willis will be a great pick...by the 1st turn.

The rest of the round is the same guys everytime - only the order changes. I suppose Johnson and Edwards before Wayne is surprising but in the end it's always about personal preference...

Maybe Young Senuta can buck up and pick-up round three...or someone else has the guts, and most importantly, the priorities to get it done. Who's up?

Our First '08 WAG'S Mock!!!

Well ... the good news is we were able to get another perspective for one of our "Mock Drafts"......the bad news is it was Ricky B!!! Not sure how to evaluate this one b/c Rick is always guarded and calculating in discussions because he's worried he may give us a "tell"........the thing is we actually already know!

Well here it goes...............

1.01 - Fred.....Adrian Peterson

1.02 - Drury.....L.T.

1.03 - Vogel.....Westbrook

1.04 - Ricky B.....Brady

1.05 - Senuta.....Marion B.

1.06 - Conley.....Jackson

1.07 - Dan.....Portis

1.08 - Skertich.....Addai

1.09 - Mark.....T.O.

1.10 - Brain.....Moss

2.01 - Brain.....L.J.

2.02 - Mark.....Lynch

2.03 - Skertich.....Edwards

2.04 - Dan.....A. Johnson

2.05 - Conley......McGahee

2.06 - Senuta.....R. Wayne

2.07 - Ricky B.....Fitz

2.08 - Vogel.....(KEEPER / Anderson)

2.09 - Drury.....Burress

2.10 - Fred.....S. Smith

3.01 - Fred.....Housh

3.02 - Drury.....Holt

3.03 - Vogel.....Maroney

3.04 - Rick.....J. Lewis

3.05 - Senuta.....Boldin

3.06 - Conley.....Gates

3.07 - Dan.....Bush

3.08 - P-Skert.....Manning

3.09 - Mark.....R. Brown

3.10 - Brain.....Roy Williams

4.01 - Brain.....Ocho Johnson

4.02 - Mark.....LenDale

4.03 - P-Skert.....Calvin Johnson

4.04 - Dan.....Santana M.

4.05 - Conley.....Jennings

4.06 - Senuta.....Willie Parker

4.07 - Ricky B.....McFadden

4.08 - Vogel.....Winslow

4.09 - Drury.....Rudi

4.10 - Fred.....Hines

5.01 - Fred.....Edge

5.02 - Drury.....Driver

5.03 - Vogel.....Marvin H.

5.04 - Ricky B.....Cooley

5.05 - Senuta......Javon Walker

5.06 - Conley.....Coles

5.07 - Dan.....Palmer

5.08 - P-skert.....Santonio H

5.09 - Mark.....Tony G.

5.10 - Brain.....Heap

Interesting how it plays out...obviously some of the off-season moves and training camp buzz will impact the selections but let it soak in a bit and we'll analyze a bit later!!!

Not so fast my receiver lovin' friends!

We've looked at the first round busts in the past (roughly 40% every year - not just in the FPT, but every publication imaginable...) and what have we found - remarkable consistency in the numbers: Number of busts. PPR studs get it done. It's not about the yards!

Well, as we look a bit closer at this, despite our best efforts to prognosticate, the only thing reliably scientific is that we are inevitably wrong.

2007 Receiving Leaders (top 10):

Picked

(20th) Houshmandzadeh - 112

(133rd) Welker - 112 (kept - DNice)

(10th) Wayne - 104
(Free Agent) Mason - 103 (potential keep - Ninja)

(174th) Marshall - 102 (kept - UCB)

(18th) Fitz - 100

(106th) Gonzo - 99

(211th) Colston - 98 (kept - UCB)

(55th) Moss - 98

(Free Agent) Witten -96 (kept - DNice)

Order of the first 10 receivers taken: Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, Marvin Harrison, TO, Holt, Boldin, Fitz, Roy Williams, TJH, Andre Johnson...where are the rest? They're too busy running short out routes and getting the occasional tuddy - that's where they are. Oh, and have we mentioned the almighty 8 catch kicker? Yeah...

2006 Receiving Leaders (top 10):

(27th) Andre Johnson - 103

(Free Agent) Furrey - 98

(11th) Harrison - 95

(3rd) Holt - 93

(23rd) Driver - 92

(91st) Coles - 91

(24th) Houshmandzadeh - 90

(10th) Jackson - 90

(122nd) Winslow - 89

(36th) Bush - 88

Order of the first 10 receivers taken: Holt, Smith,Ocho, Marvin, Chambers, Boldin, Wayne, Randy Moss, TO, DJax...Once again, where did the others come from? PPR machines who hover around 1,000 yards tops...

2005 Receiving Leaders (top 10):

(46th) Fitz - 103

(4th) Smith - 103

(47th) Boldin - 102

(23rd) Holt - 102

(24th) Ocho - 97

(34th) Gates - 89
(69th) Driver - 86

(103rd) Mason - 86

(95th) Rod Smith - 85

(132nd) Santana Moss - 84

The order of the first 10 receivers taken: Randy Moss, TO, Marvin, Holt, Ocho, Andre Johnson, Javon, Steve Smith, Horn, Hines...2005 was a bit of a mixed bag as you can see with respect to more big yardage guys surfacing here.

Ultimately, times have clearly changed and you have to wonder if defenses have gotten better at taking away the big play receivers or have the offenses gotten more conservative overtime...maybe it's a bit of both, but one thing is clear: 20-30% of the wide receivers taken in their positional top-10 meet the expectations. The flip side - 70-80% underperform...something to keep in mind going forward boys!

Mock 3.0

Now that each commish has one in the books, it's time to update our thinking as we move towards the middle of May!


1.01 Fred - Peterson


Fred's a traditionalist in the fantasy world so he goes stub RB instead of reaching for this year's favorite - Tom Brady, aka - "the team carrier," right Ninja? Plus, he's been around long enough to know that every consensus #1 falls at some point as they lose some tread on the tires. BUT does LT really belong in this category in 2008? I mean, here's a guy who doesn't play in the preseason and starts a tad slow but hell, he's a three down back who is money in PPRs. Guaranteed 22+ touches a game sounds good to me, how about you Drury?


1.02 SchoolGirls - Stetson Man


Drury grabs the stud all the "schoolgirls" want - Mr. Brady. Despite grabbing Addai last year in the 1st and sitting tight on the rest of your backfield until the Used Caddy fell to you in the 5th, you're pretty confident that last year's final stable of backs is enough in 2008 (Chester, Lorenzo Booker, Thomas Jones, Kevin Faulk, Patrick Cobbs, Michael Bennett, Justin Fargas, Mo Morris, and Jesse Chatman). Well, I hope that stable burned down in the off season because their not even winning roster spots, let alone a fantasy victories! Good luck with Forte in the 4th!


1.03 UCB - L.T.


No explanation necessary.


1.04 Flava - Addai


Too early to grab Reggie and given the fact he won't be there in the second, you opt to grab the safest piece of that offense now. I guess Wayne's back gets a rest this year...


1.05 Juice - Jackson


Yeah, yeah, yeah...BWB is a stud every year in our league. Well, take a bit of advice from the man who has proven his mettle in drafting 1st rounders in the past (Moss - 2004, Dominick Davis - 2005, Steve Smith - 2006, McGahee - 2007...). Your love for Westbrook has always been pure, but the absolute blind infatuation with a gimpy Steven Jackson last year proves one thing - stubborness. Book him!


1.06 D&D - Willis


If you're going to the games and want to ratchet it up a bit, Willis is the guy to grab... Don't take the cheap route and hope that Flacco gets it done in Free Agency!


1.07 Big Dan - Portis


What a decision - Portis or Westbrook? If they're likely to be that close in production, why not grab the guy you watch every weekend...I hate to say it, but you and D&D are closer than you think! I have to admit, watching Portis lose by a hair to Landry the other day is enough to bump him up the UCB draft board... Gotta love wheels like that!


1.08 Ninja - Westbrook


Didn't expect him to fall, did you? Well, like taking Steven Jackson a year to early and Lamont a year to late...is this the year you get it right, Goldilocks?


1.09 DNice - Randy


You're fine with whichever back makes it past Brain so you have your pick of WR - Since Brady is gone, mine as well add Moss to the stable with Welker. A strategy that we'll look back on and say, "How about DNice recognizing the power of Brady and snagging his two best weapons...thus, countering whoever has Brady not to mention getting studly, weekly production..." Damn you, Dinora!


1.10 Brain - LJ


"Are you kidding me? Book LJ because I plan to move him between weeks 1-2...suckers!"


2.01 Brain - TO


"Me again? Was my last pick that bad? I'm on to you DNice and raise you - Romo and TO! Bitch!"


2.02 DNice - Barber


"Thanks Brain - Witten will love to have Romo throwing him the ball, too." You like Lynch but something says that Felix Jones won't hurt Barber's value in 2008 - much like Julius in 2006/07 (mental note D&D...). Oh yeah, double-digit tuddies PLUS action between the 20s seems like a good value in the 12 spot.


2.03 Ninja - Reggie


Not Bush - Wayne. You've tangled with that Bush and have learned that 3.1 per carry isn't likely to get it done despite his pass catching attributes...Plus, they restructure a wounded Deuce's deal AND are bringing in Alexander...hmmm Wayne is the only Reggie worth taking in the top 20 this year!


2.04 Big Dan - Braylon


Andre Johnson has burned you in the past - well, except for moving him to Juice's injury ward! Here's a better move - A rising stud WR in an emerging offense, weak secondaries of AFC North, and a floor of 85/1,300/11.


2.05 D&D - Fitz


You say you don't like Fitz and you may not, but it's called a lack of options, my protege. Consider this lesson #345! Take a bonafide #1 who not only got paid this offseason but as Pat Kirwan says, "he's working on his next contract already." Not to mention, do you really trust a Bengal here?


2.06 Juice - AJ


"Welcome back to the burn unit, Mr. Johnson! Let's try to get you back on the field in time to actually help this year....remember, it's not a beauty contest!"


2.07 Flava - Reggie Bush


You're always good for a sexy pick, Ricky...welcome to the pain, Mr. Bush. You're up!


2.08 UCB - some guy named Derek Anderson


See Big Dan's second pick.


2.09 SchoolGirls - Lynch


It's been a long, regretful wait I imagine... You're lucky every daddy's worst nightmare is still on the board. Every roster needs a 3-down pass catching back in an anemic offense...hopefully Lee Evans can actually draw some attention this year because last year he couldn't, right Dan?


2.10 Freddy - Steve Smith


We've officially entered the next tier of RBs, and, consequently it's time to look at BPA. There are a mix of WRs/QBS/TEs who warrant consideration here... After looking at the countless options you realize there is one position that you must grab here - WRs. Steve Smith is the play because he was half of your dynamic duo in 2006 (along with Santana, remember that year?) and you love history despite making it with your first blunder, I mean pick.


3.01 Freddy -Plaxico


You don't trust the Bengals. Period. Not to mention an opportunity to grab a player who actually plays hurt, and extremely well at that considering the lack of legit weapons in that offense. Solid pick.


3.02 SchoolGirls - TJH


We have a winner! Does TJH present a solid value here or is he like any other player who justifiably falls due to a whole host of reasons over the course of the offseason? If Ocho Stinko is causing problems in the jungle, than TJH will fail. He's NEVER seen legit coverage and thus, should NEVER be picked in the first 30!


3.03 UCB - Ronnie Brown


This maybe a bit early for someone coming off serious injury but if you look at most of my drafts, it probably doesn't matter anyway...


3.04 Flava - Manning


You will keep an undraftable QB. And you will draft a legit QB. Now's the time...


3.05 Juice - Roy Williams


Well, well, well - look what you found...better clear off a cot because someone's ankle just turned walking to the podium to accept the Juice jersey! Don't worry - he'll be good to go in 4-6 weeks. Just in time for the playoffs!


3.06 D&D - Winslow


You've ALWAYS been infatuated with TEs. This year is no different. Maybe it's because it's the one position you feel you can't pick wrong. Well, how did Todd Heap work out? Right. However, you know who the legit #1 is and grab him here...plus, you've been pounding the UCB KoolAid at DES everyday since February...


3.07 Big Dan - Boldin


Shouldn't have fallen but you'll be happy to take him. Nothing like letting the board fall to you and you did it again, bastard!


3.08 Ninja - Ocho Cinco

You need an upside play here and does it get any better - well, only if his floor wasn't so low... Remember how Brady single-handedly won you all those weeks last year - yeah, well think about all the weeks that will be lost with this pick!

3.09 DNice - LenDale the Hut

25-30 carries a week. Redzone back. Vintage DNice pick.

3.10 Brain - Big "Game"

In the year of the falling big names - "names" aren't the only thing falling... Hopefully for your sake, the "Games" aren't falling too! Hmmm guess what...

Deez Nuts and Bolts - right Flava?

1. Draft night is Friday, August 29th. What does that mean, though - the annual pilgrimage to a local MLB stadium for some pass the cup, beers, and public urination (with Shadow out - who's next?). We are waiting to pull the trigger on Braves @ Nats on that Saturday night in the Leftfield Bullpen - $40. As stated before, since there is no out-of-town trip (ie. expenses) we fully expect perfect attendance from the East Coasters. Shoot me an email or comment to this post committing by next Monday, May 5th. Please don't make us call you...you have the weekend to clear it with the family calendar so get it done!

We are tentatively looking at booking an Embassy Suites room in D.C. the night of the game. There's an ESPN Zone close by where we could hang out after the game, drink some beers, gorge ourselves on fat filled food and stumble home... We're thinking this may make it easier on DNice and Ricky B. with respect to getting home a bit quicker...

2. On the heels of an outstanding family gathering last weekend we are going to continue what was started last year - Two summertime gatherings at Vogel's house. The first weekend we're looking at is June 21/22. The second would be August 2/3. The idea is simple: get together for the sake of the kids and wives because Lord knows they won't see much of us (or at least get our undivided attention) until January! As you're deciding on the August game, decide on the dates, too... Thanks for your help with this.

3. Mocks - despite the blogger site acting finicky with the emails, please take a second and check to make sure you have your email address listed properly. If nothing else, you'll be sure not to miss Senuta leaving out an obvious top-5 pick! His first round was close, but badly missed at the same time...a lot like his yearly performances!

Lesson Learned..........

What I came to realize while reflecting back on my first mock of the year is it's imperative that I accept responsibilty for the "error of my ways".

How can I begin to justify leaving Joseph Addai out of the top 10?????

I CAN'T......not even Conley is buying what I put out there......unfortunately, it was an oversight that turns out to be a metaphor describing how some of our other FPT owners live everyday..........they forget "Joseph Addai"!!!!!

In noy way could I ever imagine walking through life on a daily basis neglecting my "Addai of the Day" ... if you will.

I apologize for the egregious error......my Ronnie Brown addition obviously impacted my ability to think clearly.........give me Addai at the 5 spot keep the rest because you and I both know ..... it could be considered "CHALK"!!!!!!!!!!

See you soon!!!!

Good Will Picking........

1.01 … Kramer….

The Prodigal Son returns……….Alas, one thing hasn’t changed since the departure of Freddy-boy from the Frederick Pain Train …. L.T. has been the consistent #1 EVERY SINGLE YEAR!!! Despite FPT ownership changing again…the #1 pick doesn’t … Freddy’s passionate about All-Day…but he wants consistency All-Year…….go ahead and book L.T. because Fred doesn’t have the stones to create any “winds of change”…..not yet!


1.02 … Drury…

Once again Drury finds himself making a selection in the Top 3….thus far it’s led to consecutive 4th place finishes in the Division…not what one would expect for a team supposedly securing an upper-echelon player! Where to go…who to grab….can Drury take a chance with an injury-prone player??????? No, No, No … when you’re feeling uncertain and unsure in life – looking for a “safe place” – usually a person goes home …. Go Home My Friend…Go Home!!! Steven Jackson is off the board!


1.03 … Vogel…

The man who prides himself on safe and reliable has come to realize – There’s No Such Thing!!! Two STUD wide-outs eliminates another WR-WR draft plan…after the debacle that was Domanick Davis/Kevin Jones eliminates an RB-RB option…and, well, we all witnessed how RB-WR worked out last year!!! So…….Sooooo…..Give ‘em Brady and realize you’re watching a proud man showing true leadership by admitting a QB sometimes offers real reliability……Derek….WHO?????


1.04 … Ricky H …

Well, one thing is certain, NOBODY knows what Rick is going to do. We all know who Rick likes but never know how he’ll go about getting “his” guys. Post”49” Manning, Maroney Trade(OUCH), All-Day A.P…..the list goes on!!!!
What this year??? Well this guy loves sexy…and is there anything sexier than Adrian Peterson year two … not for Rick!!!


1.05 … Senuta …

Westbrook…Addai….Westbrook….Addai……………………..Ronnie Brown!!! Any of you remember what R.B. looked like last year … give it a second….there you go….now you get it. ME TOO! New regime…no Booker…and Ricky who???? I’ll take Ronnie and watch him run it…..and catch it….and score it! Thanks!

1.06 … Conley …

What a dilemma ….. McGahee is staring you in the face but can you actually pass on BWB??? Do you play with your HEART or your HEAD……..BOTH…..you didn’t name yourself Dumb & Dangerous for nothing……Willis…….welcome to the FAMILY……all of you!!!


1.07 … Big Dan …

Well, Conley … I see your “my team, my guy” pick and I raise you one. Can’t miss out on the “show” he’s putting on this year. Westbrook is a monsta’ but you’re a numbers guy and here’s the bottom line … Westbrook finished 2nd in pts with a career year last season…Portis finished 3rd on a down year. Odds are one of them improves their #’s …. who you going with???


1.08 … P-Skert…

Well…well…well……NOW WHAT????? The trade up was formulated with the purpose of grabbing Mr. Brady. Lucky for you Big Dan can’t pass on Portis this season, not with Zorn at the helm despite BWB leading him to a championship last season and Conley continues to regress (maybe he would have been better served to keep J.J.). BWB is there for the taking and you know deep down in places you don’t like to talk about MJD and the Burner may be better served as 2’s and 3’s. Get back to comfortable and grab your RB’s … you’ve been doin’ this shit long enough to know who butter’s your bread!!!!


1.09 … Dinora…

Interesting how things work out…….the man who argues RB’s aren’t valuable in our league is forced to make a decision….L.J., Lynch or best WR.
Quick note to self…The top 3 receivers drafted in the previous 3 FPT drafts have NEVER actually finished in the Top 3…Not Once!! Also, how’d it work out last time you took two WR’s at the loop(Owens-34th in pts. / R.Moss-19th).
How’s wide-out / wide-out on the loop sound this year my friend…..hell, I say do it … go with your heart…..I’m begging you! T.O. is off the board ………………Thank you Mark!!!


1.10… Brain …

Never really know how to make these picks…unfortunately I can’t actually get in that head of your’s…well, at least when it comes to draft prognostication!!! Hell, if Mark went WR ….well, me too> Moss for me please!!!

It's May 1st - How about round 3?

3.01 Freddy (Peterson - 1, Maroney - 2)

Getting alittle nervous, aren't you? Lord knows you need a pass catcher but unfortunately for you, Laurence doesn't even play on 3rd downs...oops! Tough luck - thankfully for you, the mistake can be averted since it's May 1st. But given where we're at now, you hate the Giants but love a studly red zone target who plays through pain on a weekly basis. The good thing for you is that Plax handles "pain" without having a trophy named after him...welcome back, Freddy!

3.02 SchoolGirls (L.T. - 1, Lynch - 2)

22 picks in and you would think someone could line-up in the flank but you're different than most - CLEARLY! The good thing for you is the perennial underachiever, Ocho Stinko, is sitting pretty...he has to play, he will get targeted, and most of all, he will win you about 3 weeks and lose you another 10. Better hold-on because this ride sucks.

3.03 UCB (Addai - 1, STUD - 2)

Sitting with 2 top-10 WRs, the safest back on the board in the most balanced offense, and likely the next Tom Brady throwing the ball in Cleveland (have you seen his weapons?) - I can go anywhere. Do I like Anquan and his sick YAC? How about grabbing McFadden - it's not like Chester Taylor is in Oakland... I do love me a reliable TE in a dynamic offense. But book Roy Williams because playing opposite TO should do wonders...

3.04 Ricky B. (Jackson - 1, Smith - 2)

I'm beginning to wonder if you might go T.B. in the 1st given the easiest schedule and the Cheater's propensity for beating teams down with the pass but I digress...Since Campbell is likely under center for you, Boldin is the man because what's a fantasy roster without two WRs under 5'9" anyway?

3.05 Juice (Westbrook - 1, Andre Johnson - 2)

Let's see...who else has both an incredibly high ceiling but a floor lower than D&D's? You're intrigued by Fast Willie (he's still going to get the lion's share for well over 1,000 yds and a few TDs) but you have always loved Big Game despite not having one yourself - well, my friend - he's in your sights - are you gonna pull the trigger? Welcome Aboard!

3.06 D&D (McGahee - 1, Fitz - 2)

You're set at QB...but you would've expected to be set somewhere else too considering you actually think you have 3 potential keeps on the offensive side. Well, you don't. In fact, you're keeping Cotchery but he doesn't really count, does he? Nope. Rumor has it they picked up a game-changing TE in the draft who does EVERYTHING Cotchery does but ADDS the "game-changing" part. Oh, you're on the clock...you'll take Winslow because you love the 5 nationally televised games with the pass-happy offense that has a sucky defense. You've played enough to know, a bad defense means you're offense needs lots of points - and fast!

3.07 Costco (Portis -1, Braylon - 2)

Can you really count on Lee Evans? You are tempted by Peyton but keeping Dallas Clark. But when a player falls that screams VALUE - Ronnie Brown is the guy. It kills Jamal's value to take him here so you don't. But I have to admit, this slot sucks right now...

3.08 Ninja (Moss - 1, Reggie - 2)

You have never been a QB guy until one was solely responsible (oh yeah, that schedule was cush too...) for your success in 2007. You should take Manning here but will your pride let you...well, that same pride screwed you in the 1st. Fool me once, shame on you...Fool me twice, shame on me. Great saying but aren't you the only fool in the picture? Thank God you're brother is drafting too! In the end, you take Peyton...good move - good value.

3.09 DNice (Brady - 1, Barber - 2)

Have to admit, love your draft so far...it's been a long wait but the right choices are waiting for you. Jamal. LenDale. Fast Willie. You're not lovin' the WRs here so you push it and grab LenDale and his 30+ carries a game. No brainer despite your smoke machine working overtime last weekend...

3.10 Brain (LJ - 1, TO - 2)

Too early for Vincent Jackson. Too late for a quality RB. What the hell are you gonna do? I can't wait to find out...but I think you're tickled at Gonzo reluctantly waiting to join your squad. The bright side for you - Romo is throwing the ball. The downside for Gonzo - Brodie Croyle is throwing him the ball...