Got Busts?

Thought about all the obvious pictures for this post but I quickly realized that it's tough to top the original perv - Fallujah Footballers/Leesburg Landscapers/Flava Savers/Richard. So, like any student of history, I won't tempt fate in a place I don't belong.

Each season is filled with can't miss lists/rankings across every magazine shelf and on any free/paid site on the web. And each list typically has 90% of the same guys. Well, I'm here to tell you that the industry regularly gets 40-50% of these so-called can't miss guys wrong - particularly in the top-10. Here we go!

2005 - Our inaugural season

7 out of 10 were busts

2006

4 out of 10 were busts

2007

5 out of 10 were busts

2008

5 out of 10 were busts

2009

5 out of 10 were busts

Impressive huh? Let me guess - you each think your picks reflect the other side of this breakdown, right? We'll get to that... But first, let's look positionally at this.

Of all the busts over the last 5 seasons, RBs busted 23 out of 34 times. However, the WRs busted on only 3 occassions out of 13 picks. And of course we all remember Tom Brady going down early - QBs busted just one out of 3 times.

Second guessing yourself yet? Try this...draft slot analysis.

1st - Never busted

2nd - 3 out of 5

3rd - 1 out of 5

4th - 4 out of 5

5th - 3 out of 5

6th - 3 out of 5

7th - 3 out of 5

8th - 2 out of 5

9th - 4 out of 5

10th - 3 out of 5

Can't remember how you did, or in my case, trying to forget...too bad!

SchoolGirls - Alexander, Addai, Tomlinson

DNice - Brady

Brain - McGahee, Barber, SJax and Alexander, Lynch, SJax

Juice - Holmes

Legend - McAlister, Forte

Flava - Moss

PE - Alexander, Portis, SJax, Calvin,

Ninja - SJax, Jordan, Boldin

UCB - Davis, McGahee, Barber

D&D - Rudi

Surpirsed? I am. Can't believe Rick wasn't too bad. Conley hasn't screwed up much. PE loves Peyton because of this performance. DNice is typically rock solid. Whereas Juice backs up all his talk with solid picks early. Ninja is just being Ninja. And SchoolGirls struggles with the RB selections. Ominous pick coming at 7:00 on Friday, Drury! Brain's first rounder has busted every year. In fact, he has the rare honor of having 6 first round busts in 5 seasons! Will Senuta join him in 2010? And of course, my own struggles have been well documented in the early rounds...

But what does this tell us? Is anybody really safe? Well, only Addai busted once out of 7 Colt chances. This obviously helps those who've coveted Reggie and Peyton over the years. The other clear take away is Steven Jackson. So much for one of the few feature backs being a consistent producer! Just goes to show you that all those magazines out there don't use actual data to support their rankings, do they? But in addition to the SJax downer, how about the number of backs who came out of relative nowhere only to crap the bed the following season. Lamont Jordan. Reggie Bush. Marshawn Lynch. Matt Forte. So who is this year's version? Ray Rice or Chris Johnson? It has to be somebody. History clearly proves it!

And finally, as you lay your head on the pillow each of the next few nights, do yourself a favor and don't chase any dreams...let them come to you. Because if you reach for someone unproven, you likely will be reaching into your wallet for weeks trying to cover such a dramatic turn of events.

Best of luck, boys! Don't overthink anything...